The Blank Swan: The End of Probability Elie Ayache
Publisher: Wiley

Mar 16, 2014 - Enter the Black Swan moment. And that is a sufficiently small probability for us to ignore. Near to the financial community profess loudly that “No one could have known” that such massive losses from collateralized debt obligations were possible, or that credit spreads could widen and stay widened for months on end. The other two authors are physicist Yaneer Bar-Yam, and politician-philosopher Rupert Read. May 2, 2011 - The Black Swan Theory or Theory of Black Swan Events is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept that The event is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. Jan 6, 2014 - This sequence could come to an end in a “black swan” event; the laws of physics could suddenly change, or the Earth could collide with a wandering planet big enough to destroy it. Black Swans are so far on the outside chances of probability that you can't or don't plan for them, but when they happen they are life-altering. May 4, 2014 - One of the authors is statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who has previously written books such as The Black Swan on the impact of low-probability events. In the end, the authors have clearly demonstrated that they do not care about biology, medicine or rational risk analysis. They have negligible knowledge of molecular biology, plant breeding and genetic engineering. The likely time-scales cannot be short compared to the past record, And that means that the likelihood of the world ending before tomorrow dawns is less than one-in-a-trillion. May 18, 2008 - A black swan event, loosely described, is an occurrence that: 1) is structurally possible within a system, 2) is of very low probability within that system, but which 3) should it take place has a disproportionate impact upon the systemic order. What are the likely time-scales for such events?